Cybercabs are a new kind of investment class, which is why I'm creating this report. It's intended as a helpful guide for anyone considering investing in Cybercabs (but it's not investment advice, and I'm not a financial adviser). This is Version 3, so if you have any feedback or questions, let me know and I'll update this report.
What makes Cybercabs a fundamentally new kind of investment is that their closest analogy is a rental property, but there are also important differences. They're like rental property in that their purchase can be financed and the goal is to generate income by letting people temporarily occupy space. But they're unlike rental property in that the "space" can move around based on market demand, and there's no tenant who pays a fixed rent under a lease. A Cybercab earns fare by fare, so its income each day depends on how many trips riders take in it. This highlights one of Tesla's competitive advantages: Cybercab owners tap into the existing Tesla network to find fares, so the owner's main responsibilities are charging and cleaning.
How each car makes money
- Riders pay fares.
- The network keeps its share of each fare before the owner is paid.
- The owner pays to run the car: charging, cleaning, insurance, parking, scheduled maintenance and an assumed FSD fee. Unscheduled repairs and losses are not fully priced.
- The owner also makes any loan payments.
- What remains, before income tax, is the car’s cash.
- Set aside money to replace the car. The final cash row shows what remains after those savings.
Trips drive revenue. At 35% active service time, a car spends about 8.4 hours a day in trip cycles: 5.9 hours carrying riders, 1.5 picking up and dropping off, and 1.0 driving empty. That fits about 29.4 trips, each paying about $5.50. Charging and cleaning happen outside that time.
Build your fleet
An assumption; Tesla hasn’t published a price.
An analyst trip assumption, not a Tesla or Philadelphia fare. With a $1.00 base fare and 3-mile trips, each trip pays about $5.50 before Tesla’s share.
Trip assumptions
Each trip cycle is the paid trip, its share of empty driving (including trips to a charger) at road speed, plus pickup and drop-off time. Trips a day = active service time ÷ that cycle, so faster driving or less empty mileage adds fares only by fitting in more trips, which also adds miles and their costs. Now: 3-mile trips at 15 mph, 3 minutes to pick up and drop off, and a $1.00 base fare.
Loan payment while the loan runs: $483.32 per car, $4,833.20 a month for the fleet.
Calculated from the price, down payment, rate and term.
Other upfront costs
Running costs
$295 uses PPA’s Ben Franklin Bridge monthly rate as a Philadelphia planning anchor, checked Oct 7, 2026. Ordinary parking is not a fleet-depot lease or permission to install chargers. $150 is a lower-cost estimate; $0 means no extra space cost. Clear for unknown.
More running-cost settings
Cleaning labor: $30/hour loaded, based on BLS’s $20.13/hour local cleaning-category mean wage (May 2025), plus employment costs. The $500/car-year contingency includes the 2026 PA EV road-user charge of $250 if applicable; the remainder does not cover all permits, tires, repairs or losses.
Itemized costs for a year
| Line | Fleet per year | Per car per year |
|---|---|---|
| Gross fares | $591,074 | $59,107 |
| Tesla’s share, deducted | $206,876 | $20,688 |
| Owner revenue | $384,198 | $38,420 |
| Purchased charging (Market Rate, $0.57/kWh benchmark) | $54,050 | $5,405 |
| Plug handling labor | $9,125 | $913 |
| Cleaning (excludes plug labor) | $43,800 | $4,380 |
| Insurance | $36,000 | $3,600 |
| Vehicle maintenance | $23,137 | $2,314 |
| FSD fee (assumed) | $23,880 | $2,388 |
| Parking | $35,400 | $3,540 |
| Fleet management (excludes cleaning and plug labor) | $12,000 | $1,200 |
| Connectivity | $3,000 | $300 |
| Contingency | $5,000 | $500 |
| Running costs | $245,392 | $24,539 |
| Cash after running costs, before loan payments and replacement savings | $138,806 | $13,881 |
| Annual cash yield on the known upfront subtotal | 30.6% | |
Yield = first-year cash after loan payments and vehicle replacement savings ÷ the known upfront subtotal for your payment method: vehicles or down payments, charging, working cash (tied-up capital, not an expense) and any acquisition fees entered. Financed, it is a leveraged equity cash yield. Income tax and unentered fees are excluded; conditional subsidies and PECO discounts are excluded too.
How these costs are calculated
- Trips and miles: trip cycle = trip miles ÷ (1 − 15% empty share of all miles) ÷ road speed + pickup and drop-off time; trips a day = active service time × 24 h ÷ cycle. About 29.4 trips give 88.3 paid and 15.6 empty miles a car a day: 37,930 miles per car a year, 379,299 for the fleet.
- Fares = trips × (base fare + fare per paid mile × trip miles), before Tesla’s share comes off. There is no separate hourly fare, so speed can’t add fares without adding miles. The trip defaults are analyst assumptions, not Tesla terms.
- FSD fee: $199 per car per month, a report assumption, counted once as its own line and never inside charging costs or your own charging total.
- Charging costs are the Ongoing charging costs figure in the Charging section. At Market Rate, the default, they are miles × 0.25 kWh per mile × the $0.57/kWh benchmark, plus 5 minutes of plug handling per car a day at $30 an hour, with no charger investment. If you choose your own charging setup, they come only from the selected option: electricity at $0.20 per kWh; a demand charge; a $600 meter; 3% of charger hardware a year; and the same plug handling. Each is counted once. Your own monthly estimate replaces them all.
- Cleaning = (cleans × minutes ÷ 60 × labor + supplies) × car-days. Your own monthly figure replaces it. Cleaning leaves out plug handling, and fleet management leaves out both.
- Insurance, connectivity and parking are per car per month; contingency is per car per year. Vehicle maintenance is per mile, using DOE’s 6.1¢-a-mile scheduled-maintenance estimate for generic electric cars, which isn’t validated for Cybercab.
- Charge time: each car’s daily recharge, including a 10-minute visit during which the plug is handled, must fit in the charging window, and recharge plus cleaning must fit in the hours outside active service time. Empty driving, including driving to a charger, already sits inside active service time. Charger queues aren’t modeled. If a car can’t fit, the results say so; extra spots don’t give a car more hours.
- Vehicle replacement savings: (price − salvage value) ÷ vehicle life × miles. They cover the vehicle, battery included, and nothing more is added for depreciation. Market Rate owns no chargers, so there’s no charger replacement to add.
Charging
That’s $63,175 a year: $54,050 for about 94,825 kWh plus $9,125 of plug handling.
Market Rate buys energy at a $0.57/kWh benchmark and adds plug-handling labor.
Upfront charging investment: $0 (Market Rate).
Estimate costs from your charging setup
Market Rate means no charger investment: charging is bought at market prices.
If you’d build charging instead, enter only the extra costs this fleet would bear. Usable existing equipment, or charging already budgeted in a new building, can lower the upfront figure; don’t count it twice. If a developer or tenant pays, the cost moves to them rather than disappearing. Lower figures don’t make an existing charger usable or settle charging time, capacity or power.
Market Rate buys charging and owns no chargers. Your charging setup prices the option, spots and site below. Editing those inputs alone doesn’t switch the basis; your own upfront and monthly totals stay until you reset them.
Sets the setup estimates and the charging-time and power checks, and the calculated totals when Your charging setup is chosen. Using 2 charging-equipped spots. Auto sizing follows fleet size and driving assumptions, not confirmed site power.
The results use $0 upfront (Market Rate) and $5,264.59 a month (Market Rate). The tables below estimate your own charging setup for comparison. Under Market Rate, the charging-time, capacity and power checks below are comparison only, not proof or rejection of public charging.
Electricity per mile and plug handling also set the Market Rate total; electricity price and demand charge apply only to your own setup. The charging meter ($600 a year) and charger maintenance (3% of charger hardware a year) are fixed setup estimates.
How the Market Rate is set
Market Rate prices the fleet’s modeled grid electricity (miles × electricity per mile) at $0.57 per kWh and adds the same plug-handling labor, with no owned chargers, demand charge, meter or charger maintenance. $0.57 is a provisional local benchmark: the simple mean of six Philadelphia Electrify America site prices listed by DCFC Tracker on Oct 10, 2026 (Ivy Ridge $0.60, Quartermaster $0.60, Riverview $0.60, IKEA 215 $0.48, Bakers Centre $0.56 and Philadelphia Mills $0.56; mean $0.567, rounded to $0.57). DCFC Tracker is a third-party listing built from public network data. This is one network and a sample of sites, not weighted by use, and taxes, fees and memberships weren’t verified. It isn’t a verified citywide average, a worst-case ceiling, a guaranteed future Cybercab rate or a promise of compatible access. Network pricing pages don’t give one city rate: Electrify America says rates vary by location, plan and time, with idle fees extra (Electrify America pricing); Tesla Supercharging uses dynamic rates (Tesla Supercharging); EVgo shows Philadelphia rates in its app (EVgo Philadelphia).
| Metric |
|---|
Upfront charging costs and hardware
| Line |
|---|
Your figure replaces the utility-service estimate.
Charging running costs and timing
PECO’s DC fast charging rate pilot gives a 30% credit on measured distribution demand, with a floor of 30% of contract demand. It runs up to 36 months per participant, in a phase from Jan 1, 2026 to May 31, 2029, and needs a separate charging meter. Eligibility isn’t certain, and a private fleet doesn’t qualify automatically. This applies to the demand charge only, so it never applies to Market Rate or to your own monthly estimate; the actual tariff governs. PECO commercial EV promos.
| Line |
|---|
Electricity and demand charges are counted separately. With Your charging setup chosen, the calculated ongoing total uses only the option chosen above, unless you enter your own estimate.
Charging assumptions
- Cybercab compatibility is unconfirmed. Charging budgets leave out tax, shipping, vehicles, land, working cash, wireless pads and automation. Wireless charging hasn’t been shown to be required; if it is, it would be priced separately.
- Some hardware may be unavailable. Partial V4-style cabinet layouts are hypothetical. The 800 kW cabinet figure is an estimate.
- Utility-service estimates range from half to double. Enter your own figure under Upfront charging costs and hardware.
- Available site power defaults to Unknown. The optional 208V three-phase, 400 A service is an illustrative example, not a typical setup, a site measurement or code-compliant headroom. Percent choices round down to whole amps. Custom amps can’t exceed the total. With Unknown or a blank value, no power is computed. Total amps alone never implies unused amps.
- Electrical headroom: spare kW = volts × available amps × (√3 if three-phase) × 0.95 power factor × 0.8 planning reserve ÷ 1000 (manufacturer kW formula). The 0.95 and 0.8 are planning assumptions, not code compliance. The power needed is each option’s highest possible draw ÷ 0.9. “Within” doesn’t confirm input voltage, minimum service or Cybercab compatibility. This is a screen, not wire sizing or install guidance, and it doesn’t change charging times or budgets.
- Electricity per car per day: active service time × 24 h × 10.52 paid miles per active hour ÷ (1 − 15% empty miles) × 0.25 grid kWh per mile ≈ grid kWh, the same trip-linked miles as the results. About 90% reaches the battery. This is an average daily top-up, not a verified charging plan; battery size and state of charge are unknown.
- Charging times and costs are estimates, not validated Cybercab specs. Hardware figures are illustrative, including 150 kW car acceptance, which isn’t verified. Nothing here assumes the car is DC-only or wireless-only. Port power above 150 kW, such as a 500 kW post, doesn’t speed up a car in this model. Average draw is 0.75 × the lowest of port kW, 150 kW and the cabinet’s share per port, plus 10 minutes per visit, with one visit per car a day, no queueing or travel, inside a 12-hour window available 95% of the time.
- Setup running costs: electricity at $0.20/kWh; a $10/kW-month demand charge on the higher of the peak draw and 40% of the contracted capacity; a fixed $600/yr meter estimate and 3% of hardware a year for maintenance; 5 minutes a car a day of plug handling at $30/h. Change the electricity price, electricity per mile, demand charge and plug handling above; the small meter and charger-maintenance estimates are fixed. The peak draw is the most the active cabinets could deliver at once to up to 50 cars at 150 kW each, ÷ 0.9; it isn’t measured demand.
- Every selected spot is for fleet cars only. “Building power reserved for charging” is a share of the building’s electrical capacity, not of parking; making every spot fleet-only doesn’t make all of the capacity available. Main service amps is the building’s total, not what’s spare. Ask an electrician to confirm available power, and don’t open a panel yourself.
- With Your charging setup chosen, the option chosen above (now 30 kW independent units; the default is an illustrative choice, not a recommendation) supplies the calculated electricity, demand, meter, charger maintenance and plug-handling costs, each counted once, and the calculated upfront investment. Under Market Rate it feeds only these comparisons. Your own totals replace either basis in the results; the charging-time, capacity and power checks still use this option and spot count. Charger replacement isn’t included.
- Subsidies are a hypothetical single amount, up to $500,000, that you enter after your own research; no entitlement is implied. The base case is $0, and no federal credit is assumed. No program, eligibility, cap or approval is modeled. Each option applies the smaller of your amount and its upfront budget; anything left over is shown as unapplied. Under Market Rate the results apply none. Subsidies never lower the cash needed on day one. The PECO bill discount is separate, isn’t cash and is never added to subsidies.
Program and product references
Program eligibility is separate from the estimates:
Tesla Supercharger for Business ·
PA DEP AFIG ·
PECO EV toolkit ·
PECO commercial promos ·
IRS refueling property credit.
Your results
Upfront costs, bought outright
| Cars | $300,000 |
|---|---|
| Charging (Market Rate) | $0 |
| Working cash | $30,000 |
| Tax, title and acquisition fees | Not entered |
| Upfront costs, at least | $330,000 |
| Applied later reimbursement (conditional) | $0 |
| Net fleet cash committed after reimbursement, at least (conditional) | $330,000 |
Requested subsidy left unapplied: $0. The reimbursement is not recurring income and does not repay the vehicle loan in this model.
Each month, first-year average
| Fleet | Per car | |
|---|---|---|
| Gross fares | $49,256.19 | $4,925.62 |
| Tesla’s share, deducted | $17,239.66 | $1,723.97 |
| Owner revenue | $32,016.52 | $3,201.65 |
| Running costs | $20,449.36 | $2,044.94 |
| Loan payment | None | None |
| Cash remaining | $11,567.16 | $1,156.72 |
| Vehicle replacement savings | $3,160.82 | $316.08 |
| Cash remaining after replacement savings | $8,406.33 | $840.63 |
| Cash remaining with year-one PECO discount (conditional) | $11,567.16 | $1,156.72 |
| After replacement savings, with PECO discount (conditional) | $8,406.33 | $840.63 |
Base cash excludes conditional PECO savings and later subsidy reimbursements. Figures exclude income tax. Monthly amounts are first-year averages. Replacement savings are set aside to replace existing cars, not to expand the fleet. Cash totals show “—” when parking or required loan terms are unknown.
Simple cash yields
| Per year | Payback at constant first-year cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Cash yield on the vehicle price, bought outright | 33.6% | About 3.0 years |
| Annual cash yield on the known upfront subtotal | 30.6% | About 3.3 years |
Each yield is first-year cash after loan payments and replacement savings ÷ the capital named, and payback is that capital ÷ the same yearly cash, held constant. They aren’t lifetime returns or an IRR. No payback is shown when cash is zero or negative, or when financed. Working cash is tied-up capital, not an expense.
How long the cars last
A car’s working life determines how much to save per mile for its replacement; running costs are separate. Musk has claimed that the Cybercab is designed to last 300,000 miles. That claim hasn’t been verified in a primary source; 300,000 miles is this report’s default working assumption, not a verified specification. Your selected life is shown below.
At these settings each car drives about 37,930 miles a year, and running costs are about $0.647 a mile. Saving to replace a car adds the amounts below, depending on how long it lasts. Market Rate buys charging, so there’s no owned charger to replace.
Vehicle replacement savings per mile
- 300,000 mi $0.100 per mile · about 7.9 years
- 500,000 mi $0.060 per mile · about 13.2 years
- 1,000,000 mi $0.030 per mile · about 26.4 years
The longer the cars last, the more the result depends on running costs, which the operator manages.
Running costs plus vehicle replacement savings at your settings: $0.747 per total mile, before loan payments, income tax and unpriced losses. This is not a complete lifetime ownership cost. Philadelphia sales-tax planning anchor: $2,400 per car (8% of your price), before title and registration, subject to transaction rules and exemptions; not included until you enter acquisition fees. PA tax rates.
What Tesla hasn’t published
The report’s October 2, 2026 snapshot of Tesla’s Cybercab support page described rides in parts of Austin and an interest form for vehicle or fleet buyers. That form was not an offer of owner operating rights. This report has no verified Philadelphia launch, operator agreement, sale price, network-share contract or outside-buyer allocation schedule. Do not treat the calculator as confirmation that this business can be started.
Price and network share set how much of each fare an owner keeps. Allocation decides whether an owner gets cars at all.
Price. Tesla hasn’t published one, so the report uses an assumed price that you can change in Build your fleet. A higher price raises the cash needed up front when buying outright, or the loan payment when financing. A lower price or cheaper financing leaves more of each fare with the owner.
Network share. Tesla’s cut of gross fares. At the default 35%, Tesla keeps 35 cents of every dollar riders pay. Running costs and loan payments don’t change with the share, so every point Tesla keeps comes out of the owner’s cash. At the current settings, a year per car splits like this:
- Owner’s cash per car per year, after running costs
- $13,881
- Tesla’s gross share of fares per car per year (not Tesla’s net profit)
- $20,688
Operator agreement. It could settle how fares are set, who arranges cleaning and charging, and how much say an operator has over where its cars work. Until Tesla publishes one, the division of work between Tesla and a fleet owner is an assumption.
Service area. Philadelphia availability and operator rights are unverified. 10 cars reach 35% active service time only if riders in the areas they serve take about 294 trips a day across the fleet. That is a scenario, not a local demand forecast.
Allocation. Tesla’s Q2 2026 update reports that Cybercab production has started. Tesla hasn’t said how it will split output between customer sales and its own network, so this report assumes a buyer may not receive all the cars they want at the start. If Tesla keeps most early Cybercabs for its own network, reinvested cash has no car to buy.
All figures are pre-tax planning arithmetic on modeled and assumed inputs, not observed results or Tesla terms. Sources are listed below.
Sources
- Tesla Cybercab support page: the October 2 source snapshot described limited Austin coverage and an interest form for buying a vehicle or a fleet, not an offer of owner operating rights. Current availability and terms were not reverified for this calculator revision; no Philadelphia operating rights are assumed.
- Tesla Q2 2026 update: reports that Cybercab production has started. How Tesla will split output between customer sales and its own network isn't published; the allocation risk in this report is an assumption.
- Cybercab trip economics model: the source of this report's trip defaults. Model 1 assumes a $1 base fare plus $1 a paid mile, 5-mile trips, 25 mph and 3 minutes of loading; Model 2 changes these to 3-mile trips, 15 mph and $1.50 a paid mile (the unchanged $1 base is inferred from the listed changes). This report adapts Model 2 as a conditional illustration, not Tesla terms or observed Philadelphia demand, and doesn't reproduce the source charts. The 15% empty share, 0.25 kWh a mile and $0.57/kWh Market Rate are this report's own assumptions.
- Network take-rate model: tests Tesla shares from 15% to 50% at 35% utilization; at a 35% share, roughly $10.5k a year to the owner and $13.5k of net profit to Tesla. Model outputs, not contract terms, and no longer the source of this report's fares.
- DOE Fact of the Week #1190: an estimated 6.1¢ a mile of scheduled maintenance for generic light-duty battery electric vehicles. Not validated for Cybercab or robotaxi duty.
- Market Rate: $0.57/kWh is a provisional benchmark from six Philadelphia Electrify America site prices listed by DCFC Tracker on Oct 10, 2026 (one network, third-party). Method and limits: How the Market Rate is set.
- PECO commercial EV promotions: a DC fast charging rate pilot running Jan 1, 2026 to May 31, 2029, with a 30% credit on measured distribution demand for up to 36 months, a floor of 30% of contract demand and a separate charging meter. Eligibility isn't certain, and a private fleet doesn't qualify automatically. The report shows it only as a conditional discount on calculated "Your charging setup" costs, never on Market Rate or your own estimate.
- Manufacturer kW formula: the volts × amps × √3 × power-factor relationship behind the electrical screen in the optional charging-setup comparison.
- Program and product references, not modeled entitlements: PA DEP Alternative Fuels Incentive Grant, PECO EV toolkit, IRS alternative fuel vehicle refueling property credit and Tesla Supercharger for Business. No federal credit is assumed (base case $0). Subsidy amounts up to $500,000 are hypothetical inputs, not awards or entitlements. They count only against upfront charging investment under "Your charging setup", as a later reimbursement rather than day-one cash; under Market Rate, $0 is applied.
- Subsidy note, sources checked Oct 1, 2026: the PA DEP AFIG page says the 2026 round is closed and a reopening is anticipated in winter 2027, with a $300,000 cap per application and $500,000 per applicant across applications. The IRS refueling property credit applies only to property placed in service by June 30, 2026. The report's $500,000 subsidy slider is a generic hypothetical input, not a single grant award or a confirmed new round, and the base case assumes no federal credit ($0).
- The 300,000-mile life attributed to Musk hasn't been found in a primary source; the report uses it as a working assumption, not a verified specification.
- Philadelphia inputs checked October 7, 2026: PPA Ben Franklin Bridge parking lists $295 monthly ordinary parking. This anchors a paid-space estimate, not a depot lease, fleet permission or charger installation. $0 means already-paid/owned space; $150 is a lower-cost scenario.
- BLS Philadelphia metro wages, May 2025: $20.13/hour mean for building and grounds cleaning and maintenance, used to estimate $30/hour including employment costs.
- PA tax rates: 6% state plus 2% Philadelphia sales tax supplies the 8% purchase-price planning anchor. Transaction rules, exemptions, title and registration still need confirmation; the anchor is not silently added to acquisition fees.
- PennDOT road-user charge: $250 per EV for a one-year 2026 registration, if applicable. This is included within, not added on top of, the $500/car-year contingency estimate; the remainder does not fully price repairs, losses or other fees.
- Report estimates: $30,000 per car and financing at $5,000 down, 6% APR, 60 months. Insurance remains an editable estimate. Trip defaults are an analyst's conditional illustration, not Tesla terms or a Philadelphia forecast: 35% active service time, 3-mile trips at 15 mph, 3 minutes to pick up and drop off, 15% empty miles, and a $1 base fare plus $1.50 a paid mile. FSD at $199 per car per month is a report assumption shown as its own cost line. Charging defaults to Market Rate: modeled energy bought at the $0.57/kWh benchmark plus separate plug-handling labor (5 minutes a car a day at $30/hour), with $0 owned charging capital. Under Market Rate the next car needs only its price (plus any fees entered) and no dedicated charging investment, and its funding time is left unresolved. The optional "Your charging setup" calculator explores an owned setup; enter only the extra infrastructure this fleet would add. Its hardware figures include 150 kW car acceptance, site power starts unknown, and automatic spot sizing tests modeled time and load only. Under Market Rate those physical checks are comparison only, not proof or rejection of public charging. Cybercab charging compatibility, public charger access and availability, and any charging contract remain unconfirmed.